🔗 Share this article

Seven years ago, it took just eight words to electrify a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance & Settled Debates

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if Europe may not be the central crisis of British politics, the cap which was tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.

An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of deciding that this makes the US an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past

This situation brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to keep open the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk & A Wise Memory

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.